US Defeated in Syria But the War is Still Not Over
Sunny Singh
On December 20 this year, the US President Donald Trump finally announced that the US will be withdrawing its forces from Syria. It was inevitable as the US had already lost this war and had seen it coming. It had already accepted its defeat when it started shifting the narrative – from explaining its presence in Syria for ‘saving democracy’ from Assad, like it did in Libya with Gadhafi, to countering ISIS. For the US, the invasion of Syria was meant for its own strategic gains as well as to gain access to the hydrocarbons which are abundant in the region. Syria was considered to be a stepping stone to Iran but it seems that the hegemon itself has slipped off this wobbly stone called Syria! The dream of Obama, which Trump continued to carry on, of establishing a pro-US government in Syria has totally fallen flat. When the last urban stronghold of ISIS in Syria was captured, the US found it to be the most opportune moment to save its face and leave with whatever grace (if at all that could be found in these imperialist adventures) that remained. All the while (and even today) the Republicans and Democrats are engaged in a continuing debate regarding this decision and are pushing for the continuation of presence of American forces in Syria to protect the world from ISIS. However, the rationalization being provided about saving the world from ISIS to justify the presence of American forces in Syria, is nothing but a blatant lie and a device to cover-up their true intention, which is that they are doing it for the American weapons manufacturers’ lobby which wants to continue this war and keep reaping insane amounts of profit from it and also to save the US position as an imperialist hegemon in the entire region, which has been declining right since the end of the Second Iraq War, which ultimately ended up installing a regime which became pro-Iran. The war had not even ceased yet, and the skeletons started coming tumbling out of the American closet–with huge cover-ups and lies. The biggest one of which came out when James N. Mattis, the US Secretary of Defense, after his very public feud with Trump over the latter’s decision to withdraw American forces from Syria, disclosed that ‘there had been no evidence of any chemical gas attack on civilians by the Assad Government’; a pretext which had been used by the US Government to justify its intervention in the Syrian civil war.
The hegemony of the US presently faces serious challenge and its power as a ostensible unipolar authority has undoubtedly deteriorated. The defeat of the US is certainly a cause of celebration for people of Syria. But the victory is not theirs alone; it is also the victory of the Russian Imperialism and its junior partner Assad representing the Syrian bourgeoisie. Nevertheless, it is a step forward for the Syrian people because objectively this defeat of the hegemon provides an opportunity to revolutionary forces within the country to advance and move forward. Certainly, the biggest victor in this struggle have been the Syrian Government and its imperialist partners–Russia and also the regional powers like Iran and Turkey. Although Turkey is a vacillating ally of Russia, it was obliged to take a position in Syria as it needs to counter the Kurdish influence in Northern Syria. Turkey has criticized the key allies of the US in the Middle East, i.e., Israel and Saudi Arabia for the massacres in Gaza and assassination of Jamal Khashoggi respectively. Earlier it did confront Russia when Russia entered the war but now it has changed its stance towards the latter. The Kurdish people and the state which they have been fighting for, i.e., Kurdistan, both are in deep trouble as they have lost their primary ally – the US. The US, on the other hand, betrayed Kurds to align itself with Turkey, keeping in view its own long term geo-strategic and economic interests in the Middle East. On December 12, Turkish Government announced that it will be launching an attack on Northern Syria but later, after Trump’s announcement regarding the withdrawal of American forces from Syria, postponed it. As of 20th December, the Kurds were engaged in talks with Assad in regard to handing over the oil fields that they control in Northern Syria, as the possibility of a Turkish invasion still looms large.
In the aftermath of Trump’s announcement, a UN meeting was convened to go over the ‘peace processes’ and drafting of the Syrian constitution which saw participation by Russia, Turkey and Iran along with other countries. All three of them working together made sure that the US was strategically kept out of any and all influential positions in this process and that the US is not be able to assert any control over further developments in the Syrian situation. The story of American decline in the Middle-East continues.
Following the victory in Aleppo, Deraa and Homs, Bashar al-Assad has emerged as a clear winner and he is now busy showcasing to the world that Syria is on the road to stabilization. From organizing trade fairs to opening up museums, he at least does not seem to be much concerned about the happenings of these ‘peace talks’. Rather, he has been derailing and at times even violating the decisions of the UN committee overlooking these ‘peace processes’, even after signing up on them, and quite comfortably so; which only goes on to show how clearly he grasps the fact that he has emerged as the victor in this war. The withdrawal of the US forces might be a huge step towards the end of this war; however, the war is still not over and struggle of the Syrian people against Assad regime too is not over. This much, nevertheless, is certain that the defeat of the US imperialism in the Middle-East and the subsequent intensification of imperialist rivalry in the Middle-East signifies a rupture in the continuity, which almost always creates spaces for revolutionary intervention. However, in the absence of a revolutionary vanguard, this opportunity might, most probably, be lost.
The Unfinished War
This war that began back in 2011 has wreaked havoc on the Syrian people. It has reduced Syrian cities to piles of cement and debris and turned its agricultural lands barren. The war has caused, directly or indirectly through the spread of diseases, the death of over 5,60,000 people. Half the population has been forced to become refugee either in Syria or is seeking refuge all across Europe. Children are dying of hunger. Unemployment is sky-high. Agricultural production has decreased to half. On an average, a Syrian spends nine-tenths of his income on food. Industries have shifted to the neighbouring Gulf countries, which Assad has been trying to bring back. He has also been inviting foreign investment in the country, the largest share of which has been reserved for Russia and China. The conflict may have cooled off for now, but it is far from over and will be troubling Syria for some time to come. Some pockets of regions are still controlled by the rebels, while some others are under the control of various Islamic groups, which have been operating on the funding from the neighbouring Gulf states. Some other regions are under Turkish control. The area under the control of the ‘Free Syrian Army’ and its Islamic splinters is now shrinking as the Syrian army pushes in. The tactics which is being employed to achieve this is by blockading all supply routes, which not only limits the ammunition available to the fighters inside, but also cuts off the supply of basic amenities like food, water and medicines to the population which is still inside these areas. The people are starving to death and Assad, considering them nothing more than collateral damage, keeps pushing in and employing this tactics. The majority of the Syrian people are now preparing to rebuild their cities and their country. The war might have ended but their life is still far from return to normal.
The Northern Syria has majority of Kurdish people and is being ruled by Democratic Union Party (PYD) which formed the state of Democratic Federation of Northern Syria, popularly called Rojava revolution, during the war. Interestingly enough, it was labelled by many Leftists the world over as a Socialist experiment and many people, too, thought the PYD to be a Marxist group. Stating the obvious here, but neither is Rojava a socialist experiment and nor is the PYD in any way Marxist. Rojava is a kind of a welfare state and a petty-bourgeois model of grass-root democracy, and it has no intentions of abolishing private property. The ideological inspiration for this model comes from Abdullah Ocalan and Murray Bookchin. Those who know about their theories do not have any illusions about the character of Rojava experiment.
Turkey may have postponed the proposed offensive against them following the announcement by Trump, but nobody knows till when. The Assad government had earlier dismissed PYD’s proposal for formation of a federation which would have allowed the Kurds and their government some autonomy. Assad has been in talks with Turkey and so the future seems quite uncertain for the Rojava revolution (although it never truly was a socialist revolution). It will be a tragic end for Rojava but no other end ever seemed likely. It was an artificially created space in an Imperialist war. They have initiated a fresh round of talks with Assad over oil fields and governance but it is still too early to predict the outcome.
Syria had been conceived as the stepping stone to Iran by the US; however, it turned out to be a slippery slope for US Imperialism. The US had also been planning to form an Arab NATO since 2011, consisting of the Gulf countries along with Egypt and Jordan, but after the American defeat in Syria, this plan could not find much ground to flourish upon. It seems that the Russian axis is making quite firm and strong in-roads into the Middle East. The conflict is still far from over but it is clear that the victor in this war, for now, is the Russia-Iran-Syria axis which is temporarily supported by Turkey at least in Syria, owing to its own compulsions. The future of the Middle East will be significantly influenced by the outcome of this war, i.e. victory of the Russian axis.
The people of Syria, who participated in the mass protests of 2011, saw these protests spiraling into the civil war which later transformed into an Imperial war; they paid a huge price in this conflict but they also learned their lessons. The Imperialist war, which had been imposed on Syria, has completely exhausted the Syrian people and crushed the civil war. The biggest lesson, however, that they must learn is that they need a true revolutionary party which can analyze their experiences and after its summing-up, can lead them into the next round of struggle.
